I did some research on substitution patterns for each NBA team. My goal was to determine when teams were most likely to sit their starters. If you follow a team closely, these patterns shouldn't come as a huge surprise. For the Jazz, C.J. Miles generally subs for Andrei Kirilenko with about 3-4 minutes left in the first quarter. Al Jefferson comes out a couple minutes later. Williams usually heads to the bench at the start of the quarter, where he sits motionless until it's time to re-enter the line-up with about 6-7 minutes left in the first half.
If you pool the data for all 30 teams, you see a pretty consistent pattern. The chart below shows the typical (most common) number of starters on the court per team broken down by each of the 48 minutes of the game. Generally, the starters go head-to-head for the first 7-8 minutes of each half. Then the bench starts to trickle in for the end of the 1st and 3rd quarter and through the first 5-6 minutes of the 2nd and 4th quarters, respectively. At the end of each half, it's back to the starting units for the most part.
Instead of focusing on bench scoring, I wanted to analyze how teams are performing during the two time periods where teams' second units are most likely to be on the court. Namely the data points in red in the chart above where teams usually have two or less starters playing. The first period spans from two minutes left in the first quarter through the first five minutes of the second. The second period spans from two minutes left in the third quarter through the first four minutes of the fourth. Even if you're like me and tune out during these 13 minutes of the game, they can still play a vital role in the final outcome.
The goal of any second unit should be to leave the place better off than when you found it. In some cases, that may mean building or maintaining a lead that the starters have created. In other cases, it may mean going on a run that puts the losing team back within striking distance so the starters can get back in for the stretch run. To that end, I looked at win probabilities for the major sections of the basketball game. By comparing the change in win probability between the beginning and end of the two key time periods in question, we can see how each second unit is helping or hurting the chances of its team ultimately winning the game.
The chart below shows the NBA ranked by the total change in win probability over the two typical second-unit time periods. For each team, I showed the five guys playing the largest percentage of minutes over each of the periods. It's probably not a huge surprise that the team with the best overall record has the best performing second unit (the Spurs are also the only team that has played with the same starting five for every game this year). It helps that the Spurs use Manu Ginobili as the primary option in leading the B-Team (it also doesn't hurt that the Spurs hit home runs with George Hill and Gary Neal, who are so interchangeable that Reggie Miller thinks they are one and the same). Typically, Ginobili subs out about half-way through the first quarter, but comes in for most or all of the second, allowing him the freedom to go to work against the other team's bench.
In fact, most of the top teams have some continuity between the starting five and the second unit. The Lakers use either Lamar Odom or Pau Gasol. Miami always has either Dwyane Wade or LeBron James on the court at all times.
Houston, New Orleans and Phoenix are three decent teams that have damaging second units. Check out Houston's win probability drop in the second sub-in period, an amazing 7% decrease. The Rockets are being outscored by an average of 1.6 points per game during that 6-minute span in the 3rd/4th quarter and have given up eight leads over the stretch, the most in the league.
| RK | TEAM | 1st/2nd Qtr Win Prob | 3rd/4th Qtr Win Prob | Total Diff | ||||
| Beg | End | Diff | Beg | End | Diff | |||
| 1 | SAS | 52.92% | 58.29% | 5.37% | 64.56% | 68.60% | 4.04% | 9.41% |
| 1st/2nd: Hill (79%) - Neal (73%) - Bonner (65%) - Ginobili (65%) - Mcdyess (58%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Neal (79%) - Hill (78%) - Ginobili (62%) - Mcdyess (61%) - Bonner (55%) | ||||||||
| 2 | LAL | 56.59% | 62.27% | 5.69% | 65.07% | 68.75% | 3.67% | 9.36% |
| 1st/2nd: Blake (94%) - Brown (91%) - Barnes (77%) - Odom (67%) - Gasol (66%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Blake (94%) - Brown (93%) - Barnes (75%) - Odom (68%) - Gasol (58%) | ||||||||
| 3 | DEN | 53.84% | 54.36% | 0.52% | 54.78% | 61.78% | 7.00% | 7.51% |
| 1st/2nd: Harrington (87%) - Smith (83%) - Lawson (76%) - Forbes (46%) - Anthony (40%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Smith (84%) - Harrington (81%) - Lawson (72%) - Afflalo (45%) - Anthony (43%) | ||||||||
| 4 | MIA | 52.43% | 55.01% | 2.59% | 64.48% | 68.32% | 3.85% | 6.43% |
| 1st/2nd: Jones (85%) - Chalmers (65%) - Bosh (51%) - Wade (46%) - James (43%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Jones (86%) - Chalmers (59%) - James (53%) - Anthony (49%) - Wade (46%) | ||||||||
| 5 | ORL | 52.44% | 57.61% | 5.17% | 60.97% | 61.99% | 1.02% | 6.19% |
| 1st/2nd: Bass (75%) - Redick (73%) - Duhon (44%) - Gortat (41%) - Howard (36%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Redick (69%) - Bass (56%) - Howard (54%) - Duhon (39%) - Pietrus (38%) | ||||||||
| 6 | UTA | 42.71% | 43.78% | 1.06% | 42.66% | 46.02% | 3.37% | 4.43% |
| 1st/2nd: Miles (87%) - Watson (65%) - Price (60%) - Elson (49%) - Fesenko (39%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Miles (83%) - Williams (52%) - Watson (52%) - Elson (48%) - Price (41%) | ||||||||
| 7 | CHI | 53.25% | 52.65% | -0.60% | 54.51% | 59.14% | 4.63% | 4.02% |
| 1st/2nd: Brewer (87%) - Watson (65%) - Korver (64%) - Deng (62%) - Gibson (59%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Brewer (79%) - Deng (69%) - Korver (59%) - Watson (59%) - Gibson (54%) | ||||||||
| 8 | ATL | 51.08% | 53.41% | 2.33% | 57.30% | 57.96% | 0.65% | 2.98% |
| 1st/2nd: Ja. Crawford (82%) - Pachulia (74%) - Teague (57%) - Evans (56%) - Powell (56%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Ja. Crawford (83%) - Pachulia (57%) - Evans (53%) - Powell (51%) - Teague (44%) | ||||||||
| 9 | IND | 48.11% | 51.22% | 3.11% | 52.91% | 52.33% | -0.58% | 2.53% |
| 1st/2nd: Ford (75%) - Granger (67%) - Rush (63%) - Posey (62%) - S.Jones (52%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Ford (75%) - Granger (69%) - Rush (64%) - Posey (62%) - Dunleavy (51%) | ||||||||
| 10 | BOS | 56.87% | 56.53% | -0.33% | 65.39% | 67.92% | 2.53% | 2.20% |
| 1st/2nd: Daniels (92%) - Davis (86%) - Robinson (66%) - Erden (41%) - Pierce (34%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Daniels (87%) - Davis (84%) - Robinson (61%) - Allen (49%) - Erden (43%) | ||||||||
| 11 | OKC | 48.48% | 50.12% | 1.64% | 52.73% | 53.08% | 0.35% | 1.99% |
| 1st/2nd: Maynor (90%) - Harden (90%) - Collison (70%) - Ibaka (65%) - Green (48%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Harden (91%) - Maynor (72%) - Collison (64%) - Ibaka (57%) - Durant (55%) | ||||||||
| 12 | NYK | 46.55% | 47.11% | 0.56% | 53.25% | 53.71% | 0.45% | 1.01% |
| 1st/2nd: Douglas (92%) - Chandler (71%) - Walker (57%) - Turiaf (51%) - Fields (43%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Douglas (87%) - Chandler (72%) - Felton (55%) - Stoudemire (52%) - Fields (51%) | ||||||||
| 13 | MEM | 49.47% | 45.00% | -4.47% | 49.86% | 54.82% | 4.96% | 0.49% |
| 1st/2nd: Mayo (75%) - Arthur (73%) - Gay (61%) - Vasquez (53%) - Randolph (39%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Arthur (75%) - Gay (68%) - Mayo (68%) - Vasquez (59%) - Randolph (46%) | ||||||||
| 14 | PHI | 50.81% | 50.20% | -0.62% | 49.41% | 50.06% | 0.65% | 0.04% |
| 1st/2nd: Young (86%) - Williams (86%) - Turner (71%) - Speights (49%) - Nocioni (40%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Young (88%) - Williams (68%) - Turner (59%) - Holiday (51%) - Iguodala (45%) | ||||||||
| 15 | DAL | 55.62% | 53.08% | -2.54% | 56.15% | 58.41% | 2.26% | -0.28% |
| 1st/2nd: Barea (87%) - Terry (87%) - Haywood (79%) - Marion (74%) - Nowitzki (58%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Terry (89%) - Barea (85%) - Marion (72%) - Haywood (67%) - Nowitzki (49%) | ||||||||
| 16 | SAC | 50.09% | 47.46% | -2.64% | 37.90% | 39.92% | 2.02% | -0.61% |
| 1st/2nd: Landry (59%) - Casspi (59%) - Cousins (56%) - Udrih (56%) - Evans (53%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Landry (65%) - Casspi (60%) - Udrih (54%) - Garcia (48%) - Cousins (47%) | ||||||||
| 17 | MIL | 47.87% | 47.91% | 0.04% | 43.58% | 42.70% | -0.88% | -0.83% |
| 1st/2nd: Maggette (72%) - Dooling (64%) - Ilyasova (51%) - Boykins (46%) - Douglas-Roberts (42%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Maggette (56%) - Dooling (51%) - Boykins (49%) - Bogut (48%) - Ilyasova (47%) | ||||||||
| 18 | DET | 48.52% | 46.88% | -1.65% | 43.72% | 44.44% | 0.72% | -0.93% |
| 1st/2nd: Villanueva (71%) - Gordon (71%) - Mcgrady (71%) - Monroe (60%) - Bynum (52%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Gordon (76%) - Villanueva (70%) - Monroe (61%) - Mcgrady (53%) - Bynum (53%) | ||||||||
| 19 | POR | 50.65% | 50.72% | 0.06% | 57.15% | 54.81% | -2.33% | -2.27% |
| 1st/2nd: Fernandez (85%) - Cunningham (73%) - Batum (54%) - Matthews (51%) - Mills (51%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Fernandez (79%) - Cunningham (74%) - Aldridge (62%) - Matthews (60%) - Batum (49%) | ||||||||
| 20 | TOR | 43.83% | 44.33% | 0.50% | 36.52% | 33.68% | -2.83% | -2.34% |
| 1st/2nd: Barbosa (69%) - Bargnani (53%) - Johnson (53%) - Kleiza (50%) - Bayless (43%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Barbosa (64%) - Kleiza (55%) - Bargnani (52%) - Derozan (52%) - Calderon (44%) | ||||||||
| 21 | LAC | 53.12% | 53.35% | 0.23% | 48.72% | 46.05% | -2.67% | -2.44% |
| 1st/2nd: Butler (60%) - Bledsoe (55%) - Gomes (48%) - Griffin (45%) - Aminu (44%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Gordon (60%) - Gomes (58%) - Butler (53%) - Bledsoe (52%) - Griffin (49%) | ||||||||
| 22 | MIN | 47.74% | 42.44% | -5.30% | 35.47% | 38.26% | 2.79% | -2.51% |
| 1st/2nd: Brewer (71%) - Love (48%) - Beasley (47%) - Tolliver (41%) - Telfair (41%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Brewer (73%) - Love (56%) - Beasley (45%) - Webster (40%) - Tolliver (40%) | ||||||||
| 23 | CHA | 47.81% | 49.24% | 1.42% | 41.74% | 37.09% | -4.65% | -3.23% |
| 1st/2nd: Livingston (79%) - Thomas (63%) - Wallace (42%) - Jackson (41%) - Diaw (40%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Livingston (82%) - Thomas (63%) - Jackson (56%) - Wallace (52%) - Diaw (50%) | ||||||||
| 24 | NJN | 46.67% | 46.28% | -0.39% | 36.62% | 32.13% | -4.49% | -4.88% |
| 1st/2nd: Farmar (76%) - Favors (64%) - Petro (56%) - Outlaw (47%) - Harris (37%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Farmar (77%) - Outlaw (53%) - Favors (51%) - Harris (43%) - Lopez (43%) | ||||||||
| 25 | GSW | 45.89% | 47.06% | 1.17% | 45.49% | 38.90% | -6.58% | -5.41% |
| 1st/2nd: Ellis (82%) - D.Wright (72%) - Williams (54%) - Lee (42%) - Radmanovic (41%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Ellis (73%) - Williams (67%) - D.Wright (66%) - Radmanovic (51%) - Lee (39%) | ||||||||
| 26 | NOH | 51.20% | 50.07% | -1.13% | 58.97% | 54.61% | -4.36% | -5.49% |
| 1st/2nd: Green (76%) - Smith (76%) - Jack (59%) - Thornton (50%) - Pondexter (47%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Smith (72%) - Green (72%) - Ariza (54%) - Jack (50%) - Thornton (48%) | ||||||||
| 27 | PHX | 49.28% | 45.91% | -3.37% | 48.01% | 45.69% | -2.32% | -5.69% |
| 1st/2nd: Dudley (86%) - Dragic (82%) - Warrick (78%) - Childress (56%) - Frye (49%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Dudley (91%) - Dragic (82%) - Frye (63%) - Warrick (63%) - Childress (48%) | ||||||||
| 28 | WAS | 47.80% | 46.32% | -1.48% | 41.74% | 36.75% | -5.00% | -6.48% |
| 1st/2nd: Young (68%) - Hinrich (58%) - Mcgee (48%) - Wall (45%) - Thornton (44%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Young (77%) - Hinrich (61%) - Blatche (45%) - Arenas (38%) - Wall (38%) | ||||||||
| 29 | HOU | 53.61% | 53.12% | -0.49% | 55.39% | 48.34% | -7.06% | -7.54% |
| 1st/2nd: Lee (86%) - Budinger (80%) - Miller (59%) - Hill (56%) - Brooks (36%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Lee (78%) - Budinger (73%) - Miller (52%) - Hill (44%) - Scola (42%) | ||||||||
| 30 | CLE | 44.65% | 38.53% | -6.12% | 23.61% | 21.20% | -2.41% | -8.53% |
| 1st/2nd: Sessions (81%) - Gibson (65%) - Jamison (58%) - Hickson (44%) - Hollins (42%) | ||||||||
| 3rd/4th: Sessions (75%) - Jamison (67%) - Gibson (64%) - Hollins (46%) - J.Williams (44%) | ||||||||
The Colton Index:
Teams of the Week:
 | 1. Sacramento Kings(from 29th to 26th) - Wins at Portland, at LA Lakers, vs New Orleans; Loss vs Charlotte. Two big-time wins for the Kings over the weekend. DeMarcus Cousins showed why you're willing to roll the dice on the headcase issues, averaging 26 & 11 in those two games. |
 | 2. Charlotte Bobcats (23rd to 20th) - Wins at Sacramento, at Phoenix, at Golden State; Loss at LA Clippers. The Bobcats were 9-19 under Larry Brown before Michael Jordan showed him the door. They are now 11-7 under Paul Silas. Their offensive output has gone up by almost 5 points per game since the coaching change. |
 | 3. Chicago Bulls (7th to 4th) - Wins vs Milwaukee, vs Orlando, vs Indiana. How many of Derrick Rose's fellow MVP contenders would've played through those stomach ulcers? That's gotta factor in somewhere. |
Teams of the Weak:
 | 1. Portland Magnetic Resonance Images (from 13th to 15th) - Losses vs Sacramento, vs Boston. Brandon Roy, Marcus Camby, Nicholas Batum and Lamarcus Aldridge all had MRI's performed over the last three weeks. Maybe Wesley Matthews should just borrow Roy's knee brace as a preventive measure. |
 | 2. Toronto Raptors (25th to 29th) - Losses vs Memphis, vs Philadelphia, vs Milwaukee, at Minnesota. Losing streak at 11 games and counting. You know it's a bad sign when the T-Wolves have your game circled as an easy win. |
 | 3. Los Angeles Lakers (14th to 15th) - Win vs Utah; Losses vs Sacramento, vs Boston. Although I'm not sure it's time to panic and jump ship to the Clippers, but this might be the first time this season where the Lakers were no longer consider the title favorites. It's gotta be the Celts right now, right? |
Updated with Games as of Sunday January 30th
| Rk | Move | Team | W-L | Last 15 | Avg Diff | SOS Rk | Colton |
| 1 | - |  | 40-7 | 12-3 | 7.47 | 23 | 63.24 |
| 2 | +1 |  | 36-11 | 11-4 | 7.47 | 28 | 57.37 |
| 3 | -1 |  | 33-14 | 10-5 | 7.36 | 24 | 56.18 |
| 4 | +3 | | 33-14 | 11-4 | 6.09 | 30 | 53.33 |
| 5 | - |  | 31-17 | 10-5 | 5.79 | 26 | 52.31 |
| 6 | -2 | | 33-15 | 10-5 | 6.83 | 29 | 52.19 |
| 7 | -1 |  | 31-18 | 11-4 | 3.14 | 7 | 52.15 |
| 8 | +1 |  | 31-15 | 7-8 | 2.54 | 10 | 51.36 |
| 9 | -1 |  | 30-17 | 9-6 | 1.47 | 6 | 50.05 |
| 10 | - |  | 30-18 | 10-5 | 1.77 | 25 | 48.54 |
| 11 | - |  | 28-19 | 9-6 | 3.3 | 19 | 47.58 |
| 12 | - |  | 28-20 | 6-9 | 0.19 | 17 | 44.15 |
| 13 | +1 |  | 24-24 | 10-5 | 1.02 | 15 | 43.96 |
| 14 | +1 |  | 25-22 | 7-8 | 0.66 | 18 | 43.26 |
| 15 | -2 | | 25-22 | 9-6 | 0.36 | 16 | 43.04 |
| 16 | - |  | 22-27 | 6-9 | 0.22 | 5 | 40.52 |
| 17 | - |  | 22-24 | 8-7 | -1.54 | 13 | 39.37 |
| 18 | - |  | 21-26 | 8-7 | 0.3 | 21 | 38.90 |
| 19 | +1 |  | 19-26 | 7-8 | -1.11 | 2 | 38.52 |
| 20 | +3 | | 20-26 | 9-6 | -3.24 | 22 | 35.77 |
| 21 | -2 |  | 20-27 | 7-8 | -3.17 | 12 | 35.41 |
| 22 | - |  | 17-27 | 4-11 | -1.48 | 8 | 34.13 |
| 23 | -2 |  | 18-28 | 9-6 | -2.09 | 20 | 34.12 |
| 24 | - |  | 17-31 | 6-9 | -4.4 | 3 | 32.06 |
| 25 | +1 |  | 14-34 | 5-10 | -6.1 | 11 | 26.36 |
| 26 | +3 | | 12-33 | 6-9 | -4.71 | 27 | 26.27 |
| 27 | +1 |  | 11-36 | 3-12 | -5.36 | 4 | 24.77 |
| 28 | -1 |  | 13-33 | 5-10 | -6.28 | 14 | 24.52 |
| 29 | -4 | | 13-35 | 2-13 | -5.75 | 9 | 24.45 |
| 30 | - |  | 8-39 | 0-15 | -11.45 | 1 | 16.11 |
Plan Accordingly:
Must watch games this week (all times ET):
Mon 1/31: Orlando at Memphis (8:00 PM) - Only one of seven slated games to feature two teams .500 or better. Best I could come up with.
Tues 2/1: San Antonio at Portland (10:00 PM); Houston at LA Lakers (10:30 PM, NBATV Fan Night)
Weds 2/2: Dallas at New York (7:30 PM); New Orleans at Oklahoma City (8:00 PM); Chicago at LA Clippers (10:30 PM)
Thurs 2/3: Miami at Orlando (8:00 PM); San Antonio at LA Lakers (10:30 PM) - both on TNT
Fri 2/4: Dallas at Boston (8:00 PM); Utah at Denver (10:30 PM) - both on ESPN
Sat 2/5: LA Lakers at New Orleans (8:00 PM); Oklahoma City at Utah (9:00 PM)
Sun 2/6: LA Clippers at Miami (12:00 PM); Orlando at Boston (2:30 PM, ABC) - Screw the Super Bowl pregame.
Top Dunkers:
Continuing our series from last week, here's #8 on our list of the Top 10 Dunkers in the NBA.
#8. Dwyane Wade
Team: Miami Heat
Pos: Shooting Guard
School: Marquette
Height/Weight: 6'4" 220 lbs
Dunk Signature: Mike Breen surgically attached to his nuts, an uncanny ability to hang in the air just long enough to dunk as the opposing players are on their way down.
Previous Weeks: #10. Russell Westbrook
Previous Weeks: #9. DeMar DeRozan
Dunks of the Week:
The top 5 Dunks for the week ending 1/29, as voted on by the Wegobomber Dunk Committee
5. Kobe makes Samuel Dalembert sad..
4. Emeka Okafor dunks right on top of Kevin Durant.
3. J.R. Smith gets a nice feed from Ty Lawson and throws down the one-hander with authority.
2. Ronnie Brewer puts Josh McRoberts in the Stacey King's poster machine..
1. Blake Griffin throws down an amazing 60-foot alley-oop pass from Randy Foye.
Bonus: Even Blake's misses are incredible.
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