Wegobomber Basketball: November 2010

My name is Jim Colton and I love the NBA. While most of my Michael Jordan-era friends tuned out not long after he retired (the second time*), I'm still a devout follower. Most of them dismiss today's league as too glitzy, too sterile and/or too Donaghy, and while I can't really disagree with them, I see the talent-level in the league on the rise and quickly approaching where we were 15 years ago. It's an exciting time to be a NBA fan.

* Note: For the record, Wegobomber does not recognize any games played by Jordan after the shot over Bryon Russell in the 1998 Finals. Any references to MJ in a Wizards uniform have be wiped from my memory banks.

Thankfully, I have one friend who gets it. My buddy Wego shares my passion for the league and is out there trying to spread the gospel. Like me, he can find a good excuse to watch a random Sixers-Raptors game in mid-November. Like me, he likes to make fun of Portland fans who still defend the Greg Oden draft pick. Like me, he loves a good hypothetical trade scenario.

Over 70% of my outgoing and incoming text messages are either to or from Wego's phone number, and most of those are about the NBA. We have the cell phone bills to prove it. These range from random, late night score updates ("Miami getting waxed at Dallas") and player stat lines ("Griffin 35-14-7") to deep "What if.." or "Who would you take..." questions that can lead to heated debates. Many of these debates lead to further investigation and additional analysis. Normally, we'd reach some conclusion or agree to disagree within a couple days, and that would be that. It wouldn't go beyond our tight circle of two.

At the heart of it, you had two rabid NBA fans discussing topics and debating issues that I know would be of interest to any NBA fan. And that's the crux of this blog. To bring these topics forward, with the hope of sparking discussion with other NBA die-hards. Any maybe get a few converts along the way.

In a prior life, I used to manage multiple fantasy basketball teams with quantitative-based analysis that would make any hedge-fund manager blush (when I say multiple, I mean 52 a year). Like MJ*, I retired while on the top of my game a few years ago. Even after I hung 'em up, I still found myself pouring over box scores and watching games, this time for pure entertainment value instead of as a funding vehicle for my other addiction (check out my other blog in case you don't know what I'm talking about). Although this blog won't focus on fantasy hoops, I hope to bring that same type of insightful analysis to the table here in order to drive some of the key points home.

* Note: see previous note

The Colton Index:

In another previous life, I used to run computer-based rankings on college basketball as part of a crazy obsession to bring down the RPI used by the NCAA selection committee. Of course, that was doomed for failure but out of it sprung the Colton Index, which was highly respected as a ratings tool during its time. I've since used the ratings engine to rank order golf courses (see my GolfBlog100) and am now bringing it over to NBA basketball. Check out the first Colton Index of the NBA season below. I'll be updating these rankings weekly every Monday. And you can view them anytime by selecting the 'Colton Index' tab above.

The Colton Index measures a given team's performance relative to its strength of schedule. I've modified it for the NBA to look at both the entire season-to-date and the performance over the last 15 games. Plus it considers both wins and losses and margin of victory. At its core, all it is doing is comparing one team's resume of wins and losses (with extra weight for performance over the last month or so) versus another (for example, is Dallas's 12-4 record more impressive than the Lakers 13-4 given their different schedules), similar to how you'd do it if you tried to do it manually. It is not a ranking of who the 'best' team is right now or how teams will perform in the future.

Updated with Games as of Sunday November 28

Rk	Team	W-L	Last 15	Avg Diff	SOS	SOS Rk	Colton
1	San Antonio	14-2	13-2	8.31	0.5036	18	66.78
2	Dallas	12-4	11-4	4.94	0.4664	3	61.72
3	New Orleans	12-4	11-4	4.25	0.4789	6	60.77
4	Utah	13-5	12-3	3.28	0.4924	10	58.42
5	LA Lakers	13-4	11-4	9.18	0.5494	29	56.70
6	Boston	12-4	11-4	7.25	0.5127	22	56.52
7	Orlando	12-4	11-4	6.44	0.5291	26	54.47
8	Denver	10-6	9-6	2.44	0.4653	2	53.19
9	Chicago	9-6	9-6	3.13	0.4735	4	52.20
10	Oklahoma City	11-6	9-6	-0.12	0.4824	7	49.80
11	Miami	9-8	8-7	5.88	0.4943	12	47.79
12	Indiana	8-7	8-7	3.6	0.5054	19	44.60
13	Portland	8-8	7-8	-0.5	0.4828	8	44.04
14	Atlanta	11-7	8-7	2.94	0.5370	27	44.03
15	Phoenix	8-9	7-8	-2.53	0.4461	1	42.14
16	Memphis	7-10	6-9	-1.47	0.5023	15	35.60
17	Milwaukee	6-10	6-9	-0.56	0.4994	14	33.91
18	New York	9-9	8-7	-0.39	0.5415	28	33.38
19	Charlotte	6-11	6-9	-0.88	0.5025	16	33.32
20	Golden State	8-9	6-9	-4.18	0.5134	23	33.20
21	Houston	5-11	5-10	-2.25	0.4832	9	32.37
22	Cleveland	7-9	6-9	-4.5	0.5066	20	29.53
23	Detroit	6-11	6-9	-4.47	0.5160	25	29.36
24	Toronto	6-11	5-10	-2.76	0.5026	17	29.36
25	New Jersey	6-11	4-11	-3.35	0.5097	21	27.66
26	Philadelphia	4-13	4-11	-3.06	0.4937	11	26.63
27	Washington	5-10	5-10	-6.87	0.5140	24	26.57
28	LA Clippers	3-15	3-12	-7.44	0.4760	5	24.11
29	Minnesota	4-13	3-12	-9.12	0.4962	13	21.66
30	Sacramento	4-11	4-11	-6.33	0.5535	30	20.15

Plan Accordingly:

Must watch games this week:
Mon 11/29: New Orleans at Oklahoma City (8:00 PM ET)
Tues 11/30: Boston at Cleveland (7:00 PM ET) - NBATV Fan Night
Weds 12/1: Orlando at Chicago (8:00 PM ET)
Thurs 12/2: Miami at Cleveland (8:00 PM ET); Phoenix at Golden State (10:30 PM ET) - both on TNT
Fri 12/3: Chicago at Boston (8:00 PM ET); Dallas at Utah (10:30 PM ET) - both on ESPN
Sat 12/4: Atlanta at Miami (7:30 PM ET)
Sun 12/5: New Orleans at San Antonio (7:00 PM ET)

Dunks of the Week:

If you haven't figured it out by now, we like to rank stuff. Here's our Top 5 Dunks from the last week, as voted on by the official Wegobomber Dunk Committee.

5. Marvin Williams looking a little Starks-ish at the Garden.