What are the Worst Contracts in Basketball?

The NBA...Where Today's Franchise Killers are Tomorrow's Expiring Contracts Happens

Why are these 15 guys smiling? If you were getting paid millions more than you were worth every year, you'd be smiling too.

Below is Wegobomber Basketball's look at the worst 15 contracts in basketball. My buddy Tom calls this the "ol' Eddy Curry column". Certainly, poking fun at GM's and the ridiculous multi-million contracts that some players sign is not unchartered territory. But we hope to take a unique spin on it by trying to estimate how much a player should be making, assuming a perfect world where, lo and behold, a player gets paid fair market value for his expected production over the remaining life of his contract.

We built an age-based minutes and performance model to estimate future production for each player in the league with 3+ years of service, using historical performance going back to the early 80's as our guide. Then we married that production data with current salary information (excluding players still on their rookie contract) to estimate what a given level of production would be worth in today's NBA dollars. As a benchmark, here is the average production for different level of production (All-NBA, All-Star, etc. down to the lowest scrub) and our corresponding fair market value estimate for each. VA_GM stands for Value Added per game. It's similar to John Hollinger's Value Added measure, but it computes the amount of PER production per game over a replacement-level player (John has replacement values around 11 that vary by position; I used 10 for all positions for simplification.)

Starters Minutes (26+ MPG)

LEVEL	MIN	PER	VA/GM	FMV$
1st Team All-NBA	38.0	25.61	8.86	$18.37 Million
2nd Team All-NBA	37.6	22.67	7.11	$16.93 Million
3rd Team All-NBA	36.9	21.42	6.29	$15.86 Million
All-Star/Near All-Star (Non-All NBA)	35.9	19.23	4.92	$13.73 Million
Quality Starter	33.8	16.74	3.36	$10.48 Million
Avg Starter	31.9	15.40	2.55	$8.39 Million
Below Avg Starter	30.8	14.10	1.87	$6.59 Million
Poor Starter	29.67	11.80	0.79	$3.67 Million

Bench Minutes (<26 MPG)

LEVEL	MIN	PER	VA/GM	FMV$
Quality Bench Player	21.7	15.81	1.83	$5.09 Million
Above Avg Bench Player	18.9	13.67	0.94	$3.62 Million
Avg Bench Player	16.5	12.19	0.47	$2.72 Million
Below Avg Bench Player	15.0	10.68	0.13	$2.09 Million
Scrub	14.8	8.24	-0.35	$1.66 Million

The concept is pretty simple. If a guy performs like an all-star, he should get paid like one. If a guy gets paid like he's first-team NBA and performs like Ron Mercer, then he's going to make this list. We estimated how much player should get paid if he had a fair-market value contract of the same length at his contracts. The list is rank ordered by the difference between the present value of their actual salary and their estimated fair-market value, but the simple averages and totals are shown below.

Out of the 110 or so players with non-rookie contracts and three-or-more years remaining, here is the bottom 15, moving from least-to-worst franchise killing.

15. Corey Maggette - Age 31

Contract: 3 Yrs, $30.8 Million ($9.6/$10.3/$10.9)
Value: 3 Yrs, $22.8 Million ($2.7 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	GSW	51	31.1	18.6	5.5	1.8	46.1%	25.3%	82.4%	16.9
2009-10	GSW	70	29.7	19.8	5.3	2.5	51.6%	26.6%	83.5%	20.3
2010-11	MIL	18	21.4	12.6	3.8	1.1	39.3%	21.4%	82.8%	14.9

Maggette is known for his uncanny ability for getting to the free-throw line and playing on lottery teams. And he's brought both those talents to Milwaukee this year. The only difference is Corey is now coming off the bench -- 21 minutes per game is his lowest since his 2nd year in the league. Yet he's getting paid like a productive starter, with over $10 million per year over the next three years.

14. Luke Walton - Age 30

Contract: 3 Yrs, $17.0 Million ($5.3/$5.7/$6.1)
Value: 3 Yrs, $5.1 Million ($4.0 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	LAL	65	17.9	5.0	2.8	2.7	43.6%	29.8%	71.9%	11.3
2009-10	LAL	29	9.4	2.4	1.3	1.4	35.7%	41.2%	50.0%	9.7
2010-11	LAL	10	7.5	0.5	0.6	1.2	11.1%	12.5%		-2.7

Luke Walton is one of two guys on this list who gets the dishonorable distinction of making more this year than he's worth over the entire length of his contract. If only I could find a job that pays me three times my market value. Heck, I'd settle for 1.0x value.

Once upon a time, Walton used to be a normal rotation player for the Lake Show. Now, it appears his main role is to keep Sasha Vujacic company at the end of the bench. While hanging out with Sasha very well could require a 7-digit salary, I think you could find a handful of folks willing to do it for 6 mill a year. Walton is on pace to earn over $18,000 per minute of court time this year (with buddy Vujacic making $26,500 per minute on the court).

13. Marcin Gortat - Age 26

Contract: 4 Yrs, $28.1 Million ($6.3/$6.8/$7.3/$7.7)
Value: 4 Yrs, $14.3 Million ($3.5 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	ORL	63	12.6	3.8	4.5	0.2	56.7%	100.0%	57.8%	17.0
2009-10	ORL	81	13.4	3.6	4.2	0.2	53.3%	0.0%	68.8%	13.9
2010-11	ORL	21	15.8	4.2	4.9	0.6	54.9%		73.3%	15.0

Gortat is the Curtis Painter of the NBA, if Painter was getting paid millions to hold Peyton Manning's clipboard. Sure, it's great to have a capable back-up as an insurance policy, but 7 million a year to backup an Adonis who plays 35 minutes a game and missed a grand total of three games in his first six seasons in the league? Gortat would have to contend for Sixth Man of the Year to justify that salary. Unfortunately, he produces at a mediocre level during his limited minutes. 3-3 1/2 mill a year? Sure. 7 million per? Maybe the Magic should've let him take the Mavs offer.

12. Amare Stoudemire - Age 28

Contract: 5 Yrs, $99.7 Million ($16.5/$18.2/$19.9/$21.7/$23.4 Early-Termination Option)
Value: 5 Yrs, $81.7 Million ($3.6 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	PHO	53	36.8	21.4	8.1	2.0	53.9%	42.9%	83.5%	20.3
2009-10	PHO	82	34.6	23.1	8.9	1.0	55.7%	16.7%	77.1%	22.6
2010-11	NYK	22	36.9	25.3	8.9	2.4	53.3%	55.6%	77.7%	23.4

The Knicks have been on a tear lately and Amare is back to his role of putting up gaudy numbers on a fast-paced team. He gets paid like a franchise player. He carries himself like a franchise player. But is Stoudemire really a franchise player on a title-contending team? Sure, he'd be a great piece in a Chris Bosh-type role on the second coming of a Big Three (how about Carmelo Anthony next year and Deron Williams in 2012, Knicks fans?), assuming they also get a center who's willing to do the dirty work (Amare's rebounding numbers have always been mediocre for a guy with his size and athleticism). But will they have the cap room to add those pieces with Amare getting max money?

We actually have Amare's value very close to his first-year salary of $16.5 million. But similar to what we see with a lot of long-term NBA deals, Amare's contract calls for annual increases of 8%-10% each season. That's fine and good when NBA revenues and the corresponding salary cap are growing at a high-rate. But it can be a franchise killer if the league revenues plateau and/or a hard-cap is implemented as part of the next Collective Bargaining Agreement. Cap considerations aside, Amare's production would have to increase at the same rate each year to justify those increases, and that's just not likely to happen as he reaches his 30's. As it looks now, a 32-year old Amare Stoudemire will be the highest paid player in the league in 2014.

11. Baron Davis - Age 31

Contract: 3 Yrs, $41.9 Million ($13.1/$14.0/$14.9 Early-Termination Option)
Value: 3 Yrs, $26.9 Million ($5.0 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	LAC	65	34.6	14.9	3.7	7.7	37.7%	30.2%	75.7%	14.5
2009-10	LAC	75	33.6	15.3	3.5	8.0	40.6%	27.7%	82.1%	17.4
2010-11	LAC	8	25.1	8.5	2.8	6.4	33.3%	15.5%	65.4%	11.9

This will tell you everything you need to know about Baron Davis. In 2008, the Clippers signed him to a $65 million contract to be the beard of their beleaguered franchise. That summer, Jenny Craig paid him $250,000 to endorse their weight-loss program, and part of the deal included putting on a bunch of weight during the offseason in order to take it off afterwards. Did Baron miss 17 games that season? Of course he did. Did the Clips lose 63 games? Yes, yes they did.

Baron no longer endorses Jenny Craig, but he still likes to mow down In N Out burgers during the offseason. Why work out during the summer when you can just use training camp and the first third of the season to slowly get yourself back into shape? But a funny thing happened during Baron's most recent 13-game absence. Folks started wondering if the Clippers weren't better off without him. With great young talent in Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon, even a healthy Baron Davis would be playing third fiddle at best. Perhaps it's best to hand the keys over to Eric Bledsoe and let the young guns take over.

10. DeSagana Diop - Age 29

Contract: 3 Yrs, $20.8 Million ($6.5/$6.9/$7.4 Player Option)
Value: 3 Yrs, $4.1 Million ($5.5 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	DAL/CHA	75	13.8	2.3	3.6	0.4	43.3%		33.3%	9.7
2009-10	CHA	27	9.7	1.2	2.4	0.2	51.7%		22.2%	7.8
2010-11	CHA	11	10.1	1.0	2.5	0.5	31.3%		33.3%	4.1

Diop is another guy who's worth even less over his entire contract than he is set to make this year. And it's not even close. Diop's $6.9 million salary makes Luke Walton's deal look like Monopoly money. Do we even know if Diop would be in the league today if he didn't have three more years left on his deal? John Hollinger, proprietor of the PER stat included with each stat line, estimates the replacement-player PER for centers is 10.6. Diop's career PER is 10.0. Basically, he's getting paid $7 million a year to do the job that the Bobcats could pay a D-League call-up the league minimum to perform. You know it's gotta kill Michael Jordan every time he has to sign one of DeSagana's paychecks.

Perhaps the most comical thing about Diop's deal is the $7.4 million player option in 2012. Boy, do you think he's going to test the free-agent market instead? This could be the makings of "The Decision, Part Two: Will DeSagana Opt Out?" I always wanted to know if Diop bites his fingernails.

9. Richard Hamilton - Age 32

Contract: 3 Yrs, $38.0 Million [$12.7/$12.7/$12.7 ($9.0 Million Guaranteed)]
Value: 3 Yrs, $20.7 Million ($5.8 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	DET	67	34.0	18.3	3.1	4.4	44.7%	36.8%	84.8%	16.9
2009-10	DET	46	33.7	18.1	2.7	4.4	40.9%	29.7%	84.6%	14.9
2010-11	DET	19	26.6	13.4	2.9	2.5	40.7%	37.9%	86.9%	15.1

From the Guy Who Michael Jordan Might Have Killed to the Guy Who Michael Jordan Gave to Detroit for Jerry Stackhouse Because He Loves Carolina Guys. I can't really fault somebody who was a main ingredient on a title winner, but I question the logic of Joe Dumars signing Rip to a 3-year contract extension the day after sending Chauncey Billups to Denver in a cost-cutting/rebuilding move. Those six straight Conference Finals appearances look like eons ago when you see the current Pistons in action. This includes watching Hamilton shuffle around listlessly on the court, pining for the glory days. 13 points and 26 minutes are his lowest since his rookie season. He's a shell of his former self, and this is just the first year of his extension! Perhaps the guy just needs a change of scenery.

8. Brendan Haywood - Age 31

Contract: 5 Yrs, $41.7 Million ($6.9/$7.6/$8.3/$9.1/$9.8/$10.5 Million Team Option in 2015-16)
Value: 5 Yrs, $22.3 Million ($3.9 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	WAS	6	29.2	9.7	7.3	1.3	48.8%		47.6%	14.9
2009-10	WAS/DAL	77	30.6	9.1	9.3	0.6	56.2%	0.0%	62.2%	16.1
2010-11	DAL	19	19.8	4.1	5.2	0.2	59.3%		25.8%	10.0

Somebody needs to explore Mark Cuban's big-man fetish. He's personally responsible for three of the guys on the list. Haywood essentially had a 34-game tryout with the Mavs last year, and he showed them what everybody else has known all along -- he's essentially an average center and 20 minute per game bench guy when on a playoff team. And that's exactly the role he is playing for the Mavericks this season behind Tyson Chandler. Now is a 31-year old back-up center worth $8.3 million per year for the next five years? No way. Maybe Cuban is willing to pay a premium for size in order to take down the Lakers in a playoff match-up that has yet to happen. Either way, something tells me Haywood is likely to be moving up this list in future iterations.

7. Emeka Okafor - Age 28

Contract: 4 Yrs, $52.2 Million ($11.5/$12.5/$13.5/$14.5 Early Termination Option)
Value: 4 Yrs, $33.0 Million ($4.8 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	CHA	82	32.8	13.2	10.1	0.6	56.1%		59.3%	18.0
2009-10	NOH	82	28.9	10.4	9.0	0.7	53.3%		56.2%	16.5
2010-11	NOH	20	31.0	10.1	9.6	0.4	54.6%	0.0%	57.8%	15.4

When the Hornets got off to a quick 8-0 start this season, a lot of the credit was given to the resurgence of Okafor. What we've seen since then is a reversion to the mean -- a mean that puts Okafor slightly above average. In fact, his numbers this year are about the same as last year, with lower PER offset by a couple more minutes of action. Yet, he's set to make about $13 million dollars each of the next four years.  The Hornets stellar play says more about the MVP credentials of Chris Paul then anything else.  Although they're likely to make the playoffs (a first for Okafor), I  just can't see them getting past the first round with Chukuwu as their third-best player.

6. Ben Gordon - Age 27

Contract: 4 Yrs, $48.0 Million ($10.8/$11.6/$12.4/$13.2 Player Option)
Value: 4 Yrs, $29.0 Million ($4.8 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	CHI	82	36.6	20.7	3.5	3.4	45.5%	41.1%	86.4%	17.0
2009-10	DET	62	27.9	13.8	1.9	2.7	41.6%	32.1%	86.1%	14.0
2010-11	DET	21	27.4	12.3	2.6	2.5	47.4%	42.1%	90.9%	14.1

As a lifelong Chicago Bulls fan, I cried tears of joy the day Ben Gordon signed his 5-year, $58 million contract with the Pistons. This was a guy who drove me absolutely batty during his five years in Chicago. He was undersized, always looked to get his, never made his teammates better and was absolutely, atrociously woeful on defense. He was perfectly happy trading baskets with the opposing shooting guard, as long as he got his. I swear I even saw him miss a free throw on purpose so a game could go into overtime and he could put up more shots, kinda like a human Buffalo Wild Wings commercial.

Now he's doing the same thing in Detroit, except they are paying him near All-Star money to come off the bench. This year, he's fifth in their pecking order in terms of getting shots -- behind Tayshaun Prince, Ronald Stuckey, Hamilton and Charlie Villanueva. Does that sound like a guy who should be making $12 million a year for the next four years?

5. Hedo Turkoglu - Age 31

Contract: 4 Yrs, $44.0 Million [$9.8/$10.6/$11.4/$12.2 ($6.0 million guaranteed)]
Value: 4 Yrs, $20.0 Million ($6.0 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	ORL	77	36.6	16.8	5.3	4.9	41.3%	35.6%	80.7%	14.8
2009-10	TOR	74	30.7	11.3	4.6	4.1	40.9%	37.4%	77.4%	13.3
2010-11	PHO	20	26.6	9.7	4.1	2.3	42.5%	40.7%	70.6%	12.6

Remember when Hedo was the top free agent-target of the summer of 2009? Not quite the Summer of Bron. The Blazers dodged a bullet when he backed out of an agreed-upon 5-year, $53 million deal to sign with the Raptors. Turkoglu and his ball-hogging tendencies would've disastrous playing alongside Brandon Roy. Instead, Hedo's 2009-10 season with the Raptors was a catastrophe. Ten months later, he wanted out and gave up his trade kicker and lowered the guaranteed portion of the last year of his deal to facilitate the trade with Phoenix.

The problem is Phoenix isn't a great fit for Hedo either. His numbers have dropped off steadily since he left Orlando (a trend that started even in his last year with the Magic).  The bottom line is Hedo is not a terribly efficient basketball player; one who very well could be washed up. I can't envision any team wanting his service at $11 million for the next four years.

4. Elton Brand - Age 31

Contract: 3 Yrs, $51.2 Million ($16.0/$17.1/$18.2 Early-Termination Option)
Value: 3 Yrs, $26.1 Million ($8.4 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	PHI	29	31.7	13.8	8.8	1.3	44.7%	%	67.6%	14.6
2009-10	PHI	76	30.2	13.1	6.1	1.4	48.8%	0.0%	73.8%	15.7
2010-11	PHI	19	34.2	15.8	8.0	1.7	51.7%	%	80.8%	19.7

Elton got singled out in our column last week as one of the names most synonymous with losing in the league. Being the key guy on three different awful franchises will do that to you.  Philadelphia signed him right after a year where he played 8 games total for the Clippers, then Brand proceeded to play 29 games in his first season with the Sixers.

Maybe you could make a case for this contract if he was still consistently putting up 20 & 10's and never was a health risk.  Brand is experiencing a slight resurgence in minutes and productions this year under Doug Collins, but 15/8 only looks good when your previous year was 13/6.  Are these the type of numbers you pay All-NBA money for?  Of course not.

3. Joe Johnson - Age 29

Contract: 6 Yrs, $123.7 Million ($16.3/$18.0/$19.8/$21.5/$23.2/$24.9)
Value: 6 Yrs, $74.8 Million ($8.1 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	ATL	79	39.5	21.4	4.4	5.8	43.7%	36.6%	82.6%	18.2
2009-10	ATL	76	38.0	21.3	4.6	4.9	45.8%	36.9%	81.8%	19.3
2010-11	ATL	18	35.5	17.1	4.1	5.2	40.9%	25.6%	80.6%	15.9

I saw it. You saw it. Apparently everybody else other than the Atlanta Hawks front office saw it. We all watched the Magic blowout the Hawks in four straight games and came to the realization that free agent-to-be Joe Johnson (12.8 points per game, 29.8% shooting from the field in the series) wasn't worth max money. Even if you chalked the Orlando series up as a fluke, how does one explain a similar performance against Cleveland (15.0 points, 41% shooting) in a second-round sweep the previous year? A little note to all NBA GM's, just to be abundantly clear: just because you can give your own guy a longer deal with higher pay increases than any other team, it doesn't necessarily mean you have to.

Right now, Atlanta again looks like a 4/5 seed in the East and a second-round exit waiting to happen. Plus, any progress they are making is more likely to come from the continued development of Al Horford and Josh Smith. Even this season, Joe Johnson's effectiveness seems to be diminished under new coach Larry Drew and his motion-based offense. And it's hard to ignore the fact that the Hawks seem to be managing just fine without Johnson since he went down with an elbow injury a couple weeks ago. J.J. is very likely to own the top spot on this list in 2013, if not sooner.

2. Gilbert Arenas - Age 29

Contract: 4 Yrs, $80.2 Million ($17.7/$19.3/$20.8 Player Option/$22.3)
Value: 4 Yrs, $34.8 Million ($11.4 Million Difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	WAS	2	31.5	13.0	4.5	10.0	26.1%	28.6%	75.5%	18.9
2009-10	WAS	32	36.5	22.6	4.2	7.2	41.1%	34.8%	73.9%	18.7
2010-11	WAS	16	33.2	16.9	3.6	5.3	38.5%	34.9%	82.1%	14.6

One thing we failed to mention is that we instituted a risk adjustment for future production to account for players who were consistently injured and/or consistently getting themselves suspended. We called it the Arenas Factor. In most cases, it didn't make a huge difference in a player's expected value. We only adjusted downward if a guy played less than 78 games in each of the last three seasons (by a about a 1/2% for each game the player maxxed out below 78 games...so if a guy played no more than 68 games the last three years, his expected value was decreased by 5%.) We capped this adjustment at 20%, which applied only to Arenas. Even at full value, he'd still be third on this list.

Arenas is another classic example of paying your franchise guy max money when there's little to no chance of he'd be the lead guy on a title-contending team. Even worse, Arenas was coming off two consecutive lost seasons from a knee injury. In the summer of 2008, the Warriors offered him a max deal. The Wizards should have just let him walk. Instead, the Wizards responded with a six-year, $111 million contract. Of course, Arenas returned the favor by playing two games before requiring another knee surgery, then came back last year for 32 games before being suspended for the season.

To top it off, the Wizards now have one of the best young point guards in the league in John Wall. Although he's doing and saying all the right things, four more years of the Hibachi in D.C. seems like a ticking time bomb. They need to find somebody willing to take on his monster deal (probably the only feasible deal is for the next guy on the list).

1. Rashard Lewis - Age 31

Contract: 3 Yrs, $66.5 Million [$20.5/$22.2/$23.8 ($12.6 million guaranteed)]
Value: 3 Yrs, $20.9 Million ($15.2 Million Difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	ORL	79	36.2	17.7	5.7	2.6	43.9%	39.7%	83.6%	16.8
2009-10	ORL	72	32.9	14.1	4.4	1.5	43.5%	39.7%	80.6%	14.0
2010-11	ORL	21	32.3	12.3	4.2	1.2	41.8%	37.6%	75.5%	11.6

Rashard Lewis is the Barry Zito of the NBA.  He was horrifically overpaid the day he signed the contract, and it only continues to look worse and worse with each passing game. Do you think that the fact Rashard Lewis is set to make $4-$4.5 million more than Dwight Howard each of the next three years drives Dwight crazy on the inside? Here, Dwight, you lead the team in scoring and do essentially all of the rebounding and defensive work...I'll just camp out here on the three-point line and get PAID.

I understand what the Magic are trying to do by surrounding Dwight with perimeter players, but what's the justification for Rashard's 6-year, $112 million deal? Did he have compromising photos of Magic GM Otis Smith? The Magic were basically competing with themselves and decided to give Rashard a much bigger deal via a sign-and-trade with the Sonics than they (or any other team) could have given him on a standalone basis. Lewis is the 2nd highest paid player in the league this year, behind only Kobe Bryant.

His deal wouldn't be THAT bad if he was still putting up 22/6 like he did in his last year in Seattle. But Rashard's drop-off the last three years has been one of the most pronounced in the league. $20.5 million this year for a guy averaging 12.3 points and 4.2 rebounds in 32 minutes a game? That's Travis Outlaw-level production. Even if we conservatively (and kindly) ignore Rashard's season-to-date as an indicator of future performance, we still get Rashard's value at a little more than $7 million per year over the next three.  Making over $15 million more than your worth each year is going to put you at the top of this list.  Kudos to your agent, Rashard.


Other Notes:
- From a pure value-to-production standpoint, Kobe Bryant and his 4-years at $27+ million per season would have to make the list. He's set to make the same amount as money as LeBron James and Rajon Rondo combined over the next four years. But I can't really fault a team for paying a premium to a long-time face of franchise guy as long as they are still a legit title-contending team. The same holds true to a lesser extent to Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki. All three could be candidates for this list next year, if say their production took a big hit or their teams took a big step backwards.

- Some guys up for dishonorable mention include Travis Outlaw (4 yrs, $28 million), Shawn Marion (4 years, $33.2 million), Andris Biedrins (4 years, $36 million), John Salmons (4 years, $6.19), Richard Jefferson (4 years, $38.9 million), Ron Artest (4 years, $28.1 million; but he's giving most or all of his 2011-12 salary to charity) and Luol Deng (4 years, $51.3 million). Something to shoot for next year, fellas.

- One contract that could easily climb up the list next year is Brandon Roy's.  I'd be a little nervous about those knees holding up if I was on the hook to him for five more years, with a salary that climbs from $13.6 to $19.3 million over that time period.  He does have some playing conditions to make that last year fully guaranteed, but it's still partially guaranteed up to $14.5 million.

- I ignored two-year deals for purposes of the rankings, but still performed the value-to-production exercise. Kevin Garnett ($20 million per) would've topped the overpaid list for two-year deals, followed by Vince Carter ($35.3 million left, but only $4 million is guaranteed for next year). Other two-year candidates include Kirk Hinrich ($17 million left), Antawn Jamison ($28.4 million left), James Posey ($13.4 million left) and Mehmet Okur ($20.3 million left). You could also lump Andres Nocioni in here, (safely) assuming that Philadelphia won't exercise his $7.5 team option in 2012. He's due $13.5 million over the next two years. You could also make a case for Tim Duncan ($20 million per), but I'd lump him in with Kobe and the others above.

- For our list of the best contracts, click here.

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