What are the Best Contracts in Basketball?

Last week was the fun part. Ripping on GM's for the bad contracts they dole out is a lot more satisfying then giving them (or the league) props for locking up somebody long-term at a great value.

The methodology is the same as last week's column -- we built an age-based minutes and performance model to estimate future production for each player in the league with 3+ years of service. Then we married that production data with current salary information (excluding players still on their rookie contract) to estimate what a given level of production would be worth in today's NBA dollars. You'll recall we showed average production and corresponding fair market value for different classes of players (All-NBA, Quality Starter, etc. down to the lowest scrub). Here are the same tables from last week.

Starters Minutes (26+ MPG)

LEVEL	MIN	PER	VA/GM	FMV$
1st Team All-NBA	38.0	25.61	8.86	$18.37 Million
2nd Team All-NBA	37.6	22.67	7.11	$16.93 Million
3rd Team All-NBA	36.9	21.42	6.29	$15.86 Million
All-Star/Near All-Star (Non-All NBA)	35.9	19.23	4.92	$13.73 Million
Quality Starter	33.8	16.74	3.36	$10.48 Million
Avg Starter	31.9	15.40	2.55	$8.39 Million
Below Avg Starter	30.8	14.10	1.87	$6.59 Million
Poor Starter	29.67	11.80	0.79	$3.67 Million

Bench Minutes (<26 MPG)

LEVEL	MIN	PER	VA/GM	FMV$
Quality Bench Player	21.7	15.81	1.83	$5.09 Million
Above Avg Bench Player	18.9	13.67	0.94	$3.62 Million
Avg Bench Player	16.5	12.19	0.47	$2.72 Million
Below Avg Bench Player	15.0	10.68	0.13	$2.09 Million
Scrub	14.8	8.24	-0.35	$1.66 Million

Once we had an estimate of future production and the corresponding fair market value, we could compare it to what the player actually makes to identify guys that are making less than they are worth. Below is Wegobomber Basketball's look at the best 12 contracts in the NBA, sorted from least-to-most underpaid, according to the difference between the present value of their actual contract and their estimated fair-market value. Why 12 and not 15? Because we couldn't find 15, as hard as we tried.

12. Luis Scola - Age 30

Contract: 5 Yrs, $47.0 Million ($7.8/$8.6/$9.4/$10.2/$11.0)
Value: 5 Yrs, $51.8 Million (-$1.0 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	HOU	82	30.3	12.7	8.8	1.5	53.1%	0.0%	76.6%	17.0
2009-10	HOU	82	32.6	16.2	8.6	2.1	51.4%	20.0%	77.9%	17.2
2010-11	HOU	24	33.4	20.3	9.0	2.1	51.1%	0.0%	68.1%	20.8

In a season full of disappointments, one highlight for the Rockets has been the consistently strong play from Scola. His $7.8 million salary looks like a huge bargain for the 20 & 9 they are getting from him. Houston's problem is they are paying $27 million for 22 & 10 they are getting combined between him and Yao Ming. Scola would probably be rated higher if he weren't 30 years old. It's unlikely that he'll be able to keep up this play until he's 35, and his salary calls for large increases each year.

11. Lamar Odom - Age 31

Contract: 3 Yrs, $25.3 Million [$8.2/$8.9/$8.2 Team Option ($2.4 Million guaranteed)]
Value: 3 Yrs, $31.3 Million (-$2.0 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	LAL	78	29.7	11.3	8.2	2.6	49.2%	32.2%	62.3%	16.6
2009-10	LAL	82	31.5	10.8	9.8	3.3	46.3%	31.9%	69.3%	15.9
2010-11	LAL	25	35.4	15.8	9.8	3.2	58.7%	40.5%	69.2%	20.1

It's probably not a huge surprise to see Odom on this list, considering he took less money to stay in L.A. and be closer to his big-bootied honey. Not a bad choice considering he's also already got a championship ring and a Taco Bell Super Bowl ad with really big-bootied Charles Barkley to show for it.  The guy likes warm weather, Taco Bell, championship rings and big booties.  And honestly...who doesn't?

10. Josh Smith - Age 25

Contract: 3 Yrs, $37.2 Million ($11.6/$12.4/$13.2)
Value: 3 Yrs, $44.4 Million (-$2.5 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	ATL	69	35.1	15.6	7.2	2.4	49.2%	29.9%	58.8%	17.2
2009-10	ATL	81	35.4	15.7	8.7	4.2	50.5%	0.0%	61.8%	21.0
2010-11	ATL	26	33.2	16.4	8.3	3.9	49.6%	46.3%	69.9%	22.0

Josh Smith is an interesting animal. His athleticism, shot blocking skills and powerful finishes are among the tops in the league. His shooting touch...not so much. For the first five years of his career, he took a number of ill-advised three pointers, shooting less than 30% from deep over that time period. Then last year he gave up the three altogether and set career highs in field-goal percentage, offensive rebounds and assists. It looked like Smith was finally embracing his role as an inside presence.

Then this year he started jacking up threes again. The only difference is he is actually making them now. Hoopdata.com shows his shooting percentages from different distances from the hoop. He's still finishing around the basket at approximately the same rate. It's the long two's (45% this year vs. 29%-34% the last four) and three's (46%!) where the numbers really jump out. Perhaps this will revert to the mean over time, but the bottom line is Smith is still only 25 and is playing like he'll make the all-star team for the first time this year. His $12.4 million per year salary over the next three years looks pretty reasonable. Not enough of a bargain to make up for Joe Johnson, but still a fair deal.

9. Mike Conley - Age 23

Contract: 6 Yrs, $44.9 Million [$4.9/$6.5/$7.2/$7.9/$8.8]
Value: 6 Yrs, $53.1 Million (-$1.4 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	MEM	82	30.6	10.9	3.4	4.3	44.2%	40.6%	81.7%	14.3
2009-10	MEM	80	32.1	12.0	2.4	5.3	44.5%	38.7%	74.3%	13.9
2010-11	MEM	25	36.5	15.1	3.1	7.0	45.3%	34.7%	76.7%	17.2

Here is some of the initial twitter reaction to Mike Conley's 5-year, $40 million contract ($45 million if you count the performance incentives):

@chadfordinsider: $45M for Mike Conley?!? Maybe David Stern should lockout the owners

@sportsguy33: Mike Conley??? Are you sure it wasn't 5 million for 45 years?

@KBerg_CBS: One word, I think, aptly sums up Mike Conley's five-year, $45m extension: Contraction.

To sum it up: not positive. So why in the heck is Mike Conley number 9 on our list of best contracts? I'm here to tell you, his deal ain't that bad.

First of all, the deal is for $40 million. There are $5 million of lofty personal and team performance incentives in place that Michael Heisley would be happy to pay out if Conley and the Grizzlies achieve them. Also, Conley has definitely improved this year. At first, I didn't want to recognize it. But 25 games in, at some point, you have to recognize he is performing better and playing more worthwhile minutes. The entire premise of this exercise is performance-based pay. Even with some very conservative assumptions for Conley's future, I still got a fair market value that is well above the back-loaded $7.5 million per that he's set to get over the next six years.

Sure, perhaps the Grizzlies should've just waited until next summer to see what Conley could get on the open market under a new collective-bargaining agreement.  And $8 million per for an average-at-best point guard like Mike Conley may seem like a stretch. But have you seen what average-at-best point guards are making these days? Here is Conley's "peer group" of point guards in the $5-$10 million range with their overall performance since 2008-09 and salary for the next three years.  Conley is at the near the bottom of this list in terms of PER but also has the lowest salary. If you buy into his current performance and believe he can keep his PER in the 16-17 range, suddenly his market value is right around $8-$9 million.  That kind of an improvement is not a huge stretch for a guy who just turned 23. I liken his deal to Jameer Nelson's, another one that was panned the day is was penned (pre-Twitter) but looks pretty good today.

											SALARY
SEASON	AGE	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13
Devin Harris	27	156	34.8	18.7	3.2	6.8	42.5%	28.8%	81.5%	19.2	9.0	9.3	8.5
Jose Calderon	29	158	29.8	11.2	2.5	7.3	48.6%	40.6%	89.7%	17.6	9.0	9.8	10.6
Jameer Nelson	28	127	29.8	14.2	3.1	5.7	46.9%	40.9%	84.5%	17.6	6.7	7.3	7.9
Jason Kidd	37	185	35.4	9.4	5.6	8.9	41.2%	40.6%	81.6%	16.8	8.5	8.5
Mo Williams	28	169	33.9	16.6	3.2	4.8	45.1%	42.1%	89.2%	16.6	9.3	8.5	8.5
Raymond Felton	26	187	35.8	13.8	3.7	6.5	43.5%	33.8%	80.7%	15.1	7.5	7.5
Mike Conley	23	187	32.0	11.9	2.9	5.1	44.5%	38.9%	77.8%	14.5	4.9	6.5	7.2
Mike Bibby	32	185	30.7	11.7	2.8	4.3	43.3%	40.7%	78.9%	14.3	5.6	6.2
Beno Udrih	28	174	31.1	12.0	2.9	4.7	47.8%	34.2%	82.7%	14.2	6.7	7.2	7.8

Conley may never make an all-star game, but his deal doesn't prevent Memphis from getting and keeping other talent (assuming Memphis still has a franchise). If Conley is your third-best player, then you probably aren't making the playoffs. But he could be a key, modestly-priced ingredient for a playoff team if he continues to improve and is still your fourth or fifth option.

Assuming I haven't lost all credibility...there are 8 more names to go. And fancy graphs at the end.

8. Joakim Noah - Age 25

Contract: 6 Yrs, $63.6 Million ($3.1/$10.0/$11.1/$12.1/$13.2/$14.2)
Value: 6 Yrs, $70.9 Million (-$1.2 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	CHI	80	24.2	6.7	7.6	1.3	55.6%	0.0%	67.6%	16.5
2009-10	CHI	64	30.1	10.7	11.0	2.1	50.4%		74.4%	17.9
2010-11	CHI	23	37.2	14.2	11.7	2.8	51.1%	0.0%	72.4%	19.2

Wow, Joakim Noah is really, really good.

I find myself saying that a lot this year. And it's something that I never expected to come out of my mouth after the first year and a half of watching the awkward body gyrations that comprise Noah's basketball game. Dude is awkward. Really awkward, but strangely effective. And the great news for Bulls fans is he's the perfect complement for Rose and Boozer. And he might just be the ideal big man for a title-contending team.  The fact that he's out for the next 10 weeks is a huge blow to the Bulls.

Here's a little exercise for you: name all the big men you'd trade Noah straight up for. Howard. Gasol. Amare. Griffin. Okay. Bosh? Horford? Bogut? Hibbert? Regardless of where you end up on those last few, the list isn't very long. With that as your context, Noah's $10.6 million salary over the next six years looks like a steal.

7. Andray Blatche - Age 24

Contract: 5 Yrs, $35.7 Million ($5.9/$6.4/$7.1/$7.8/$8.5)
Value: 5 Yrs, $45.5 Million (-$1.9 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	WAS	71	24.0	10.0	5.3	1.7	47.1%	23.8%	70.4%	15.0
2009-10	WAS	81	27.9	14.1	6.3	2.1	47.8%	29.5%	74.4%	17.6
2010-11	WAS	20	35.0	17.1	7.7	1.8	44.1%	33.3%	80.2%	14.6

Although he's just 24, Blatche has been around awhile and has always shown flashes of brilliance. This is one deal that could be a monster steal if he ever puts it all together. That's a big if though. We have him on the list because his production merits a higher salary as long as he's starting. John Wall, JaVale McGee and Blatche look like the cornerstone of the Wizards franchise for the future. A lot of raw talent in D.C.

6. Monta Ellis - Age 25

Contract: 3 Yrs, $33.0 Million ($11.0/$11.0/$11.0/$11.0 Player Option)
Value: 3 Yrs, $42.6 Million (-$3.2 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	GSW	25	35.7	19.0	4.3	3.7	45.1%	30.8%	83.3%	14.5
2009-10	GSW	64	41.4	25.5	4.0	5.3	44.9%	33.8%	75.3%	16.7
2010-11	GSW	25	40.2	24.4	3.6	5.1	47.4%	35.6%	69.7%	18.9

There's some question about whether Monta can co-exist with Stephen Curry in Golden State's backcourt (and if the Warriors had to choose one, they'd stick with Curry), but you can't question Monta's ability to score the rock. He's an exciting player who puts up big numbers. Considering he's only 25 and makes less money than Ben Gordon, his $11 million per year flat looks like a pretty good deal, whether the Warriors keep him or trade him (they passed on a deal for OJ Mayo last year).

5. Paul Millsap - Age 25

Contract: 3 Yrs, $20.1 Million [$6.2/$6.7/$7.2 (Note: excludes cap hit $1.6 higher each year from signing bonus spread out over life of deal)]
Value: 3 Yrs, $33.9 Million (-$4.6 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	UTA	76	30.1	13.5	8.6	1.8	53.4%	0.0%	69.9%	18.6
2009-10	UTA	82	27.8	11.6	6.8	1.6	53.8%	11.1%	69.3%	16.7
2010-11	UTA	26	35.5	17.9	8.1	2.4	55.5%	57.1%	72.5%	21.4

Portland tried to force the hand of its division rival when they signed Millsap to a front-loaded deal last summer, making it painful upfront for the Jazz to match. Certainly, the Jazz had to make some financially-motivated moves like giving up Eric Maynor and Ronnie Brewer to get under the luxury cap last season. But the Millsap deal is one that looks like a steal right now. He's putting up near-Carlos Boozer type production at less than half the price.

4. LeBron James - Age 26

Contract: 6 Yrs, $109.8 Million [$14.5/$16.0/$17.5/$19.1/$20.6 (Player Option)/$22.1 (Player Option)]
Value: 6 Yrs, $126.2 Million (-$2.7 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	CLE	81	37.7	28.4	7.6	7.2	48.9%	34.4%	78.8%	31.7
2009-10	CLE	76	39.0	29.7	7.3	8.6	50.3%	33.3%	76.7%	31.1
2010-11	MIA	26	37.0	24.0	5.9	7.2	46.8%	33.7%	77.4%	24.7

Somewhat loss in the shuffle of the Decision, the ridiculous three-man pep rally and the media circus following the Heat since LeBron took his talents to South Beach is the fact that Pat Riley landed the most talented player in the league for less than max dollars (not to mention he convinced Bosh and Wade to do the same).

LeBron dominated the summer of 2010 talk for a good two years leading up to July, and most figured he would have complete control over the league once July 1st finally came. I fully expected LeBron to hold the whole free agent process hostage -- first we'd have to wait a couple weeks for him to make his decision (excuse me, The Decision), then the rest of the chips would fall into place. But that's not how it played out at all. Other free agents went ahead and signed their deals (who would've thought Joe Johnson would end up being the big winner in all of this?) Then Bosh and Wade made their power play by agreeing to go to Miami first, essentially saying to LeBron "are you joining us or not?" LeBron caved and the rest is history.

No matter what you think about the Big Three and their chances of winning a title this year or in the future, Riley is in a win-win position by having LeBron locked up at below market value for at least the next four years. The guy is making 11% less than Joe Johnson! Even if the experiment didn't work out, he'd have the room to build a team around LeBron (imagine for a second that the Heat don't win this year or next and Riley is forced to make a move. He has two very similar players in Wade and LeBron, so the natural move would be to trade one of them, right? You'd have to keep LeBron and trade Wade, right? Wouldn't that be remarkable if Wade convinces LeBron to join his team in Miami and ultimately Wade's the one that gets run out of town?)

3. Al Horford - Age 24

Contract: 6 Yrs, $65.4 Million ($5.4/$12.0/$12.0/$12.0/$12.0/$12.0)
Value: 6 Yrs, $15.3 Million (-$4.4 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	ATL	67	33.5	11.5	9.3	2.4	52.5%	0.0%	72.7%	17.0
2009-10	ATL	81	35.1	14.2	9.9	2.3	55.1%	100.0%	78.9%	19.4
2010-11	ATL	26	33.4	17.0	9.8	3.3	57.1%	0.0%	82.6%	23.9

I've always liked Horford's game, and he is making the leap this season that many (myself included) expected him to make last year. His shooting numbers have improved each season, and this year he's finally getting the touches he deserves. His extension with $12 million flat per year for five years starting in 2011 is a great deal, especially if you look at the free agent deals guys like David Lee ($13.25 million per year), Carlos Boozer ($15 million per year) and Chris Bosh ($18.3 million per year) got last summer. Horford may never be a franchise player, but he's a legitimate all-star and the type of big-man made for today's NBA.

2. Rajon Rondo - Age 24

Contract: 5 Yrs, $55.0 Million ($9.0/$10.0/$11.0/$12.0/$13.0)
Value: 5 Yrs, $77.1 Million (-$4.4 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	BOS	80	33.0	11.9	5.2	8.2	50.5%	31.3%	64.2%	18.8
2009-10	BOS	81	36.6	13.7	4.4	9.8	50.8%	21.3%	62.1%	19.1
2010-11	BOS	19	38.7	11.2	4.6	13.7	53.3%	35.7%	43.2%	19.5

The 2010-11 Celtics are very close to being the perfectly-constructed basketball team, not just in terms of talent but more in terms of each key guy having a well-defined role. Watching the well-oiled machine reel-off 11 straight, it's hard to imagine that two years ago chemistry issues almost caused them to trade away the guy who is now their best player.

After Boston got booted in the second round of the 2009 playoffs by Orlando, the Celtics threw Rondo under the bus and blamed his immaturity and lack of a jumpshot for Boston's early exit. Pretty remarkable considering 1) Garnett didn't play at all in the postseason, 2) Ray Allen had four awful games in the Orlando series and 3) Rondo nearly averaged a triple double (16.9/9.7/9.8) in the postseason that year. That didn't stop Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers from going into one of the great smear campaigns in NBA history that offseason.

Ainge toyed with the idea of using Rondo to move up in the draft to get Tyreke Evans, a move that looking back would've been disastrous. If the Big Three had problems passing the mantle over to a guy who does nothing but set them up with good looks, I can't imagine they would've welcomed ball-hogging Tyreke with open arms. Obviously the trade didn't happen, but Boston used all the baggage as leverage in the contracts negotiations with Rondo, signing him to a 5-year $55 million deal that seemed like a bargain at the time and has only gotten better with age. Had Rondo waited, he certainly would've received a max or near max offer as a restricted free agent last summer.

1. Kevin Durant - Age 22

Contract: 6 Yrs, $88.4 Million ($6.1/$13.6/$15.0/$16.5/$17.9/$19.3)
Value: 6 Yrs, $123.8 Million (-$5.9 Million difference per year)

SEASON	TEAM	G	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG%	3P%	FT%	PER
2008-09	OKC	74	39.0	25.3	6.5	2.8	47.6%	42.2%	86.3%	20.8
2009-10	OKC	82	39.5	30.1	7.6	2.8	47.6%	36.5%	90.0%	26.2
2010-11	OKC	21	39.7	27.3	6.9	2.9	43.0%	29.1%	91.4%	21.6

It's hard to heap praise on Thunder GM Sam Presti for making the no-brainer decision to lock-up Kevin Durant for as long as humanly possible. But you have to give him credit for building a promising young team around KD that would make him want to stay in Oklahoma City for the long haul. No small feat considering most mega-stars have early termination options put in their deals that allow them to go to greener pastures if things don't quite pan out in the smaller markets. I also think it says a lot about Durant and what a great teammate he is.

Although he hasn't yet been able to build upon his incredible numbers from last year and his dominant performance last summer in Turkey, something tells me his shooting percentages will come around and he'll be back around 30 points per game by the end of the season. The guy looks like God's gift to point scoring. Then you factor in that he just turned 22 a few months ago and it's nearly impossible to put a ceiling on this guy. That also makes him hard to value. But if you consider he's making 20% less than LeBron and Chris Bosh over the next six years and 17% less than Rudy Gay over the next five, it's not hard to justify his spot on the top of this list.

Other Notes:
- There's not much to pick from in the honorable mention category, but guys with slightly undervalued deals include Granny Danger (4 years, $12.5 million per year), Devin Harris (3 years, $8.9 million) and Jameer Nelson (3 years, $7.3 million). Other guys like LaMarcus Aldridge (5 years, $12.96 million), Andrew Bogut (4 years, $12.6 million), Kevin Martin (3 years, $12.0 million) and Manu Ginobili (3 years, $12.98) appear to be appropriately priced, which I guess is cause for celebration in today's NBA.

- As in the worst-deal columns, I ignored two-year deals for purposes of the rankings but still performed the value-to-production exercise. David West ($7.9 million per year) wins best two-year deal hands down.  But other good two-year values include Shaq ($1.4 million), Raymond Felton ($7.5 million), Matt Barnes ($1.83 million), Andre Miller ($7.54 million) and Steve Nash ($11.0 million)

- I developed these cool charts below that show a players 2010-11 PER versus salary, organized by position. If you're lower and to the right relative to your peers, than that means you are a good value. If you're high and to the left (hello, Rashard!), then you are overvalued. The size of the circle varies by the average minutes played per game.  For guys like Durant, Noah, Horford and Conley who signed extensions this year, I used average salary over the life of their deal instead of their 2010-11 pay.

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